Wednesday, December 15, 2004

HD on DVD - Red vs. Blue

-FOR CONSUMERS/PRODUCERS- There is much talk of the two competing next generation DVD formats, BluRay vs. HD-DVD. Both are "blue-laser" based formats, with BluRay holding much more data on a single disc. With Sony behind BluRay, the just announced endorsement from Disney, as well as support from 60% of the movie studios, I think that ship has sailed. The more interesting argument to me is: have we really maximized the potential of current "red-laser" DVD's?

Compression technology is improving every day, and there is no reason we shouldn't be squeezing every bit of data we can onto red-laser DVD's. Windows Media 9 HD and DivX HD have been around for well over a year, and they squeeze HD video down to sizes smaller than standard definition MPEG2 (DVD Video). Look at MP3-CD's, for example. People are putting hundreds of songs on regular CD's using the MP3 format, and they didn't wait around for someone to re-invent the CD. The manufacturer's got the idea and started building MP3 playback capability into their CD players. So, what comes first, the chicken or the egg?

Let's face it, when these blue-laser DVD's become readily available (probably a year from now at best), we aren't talking cheap technology. You can bet the players will be expensive, and more importantly the burners, content, and media is going to be really expensive. Keep in mind Sony has a hand in the tape backup and storage business, and if they make BluRay players, burners, and media too cheap they could stand to undercut their storage business seriously. True, the potential for a single optical disc holding 25GB per side is astounding, but it will come at a premium. Thus, we could be looking at 2 to 3 years before BluRay (or HD-DVD) is affordable.

Contrast that with the current red-laser DVD situation. Producers can use the same exact burners and media, the encoding software is free, and players will start at less than $300.00. Will an 8Mbps Windows Media HD file look as nice as a 19Mbps HD MPEG2 file? Not necessarily, but the difference in quality is not "bad vs. good", it is more like "really good vs. great". Keep in mind this is with compression technology that is over a year old, so it will only get better.

The problem is that everyone is caught in the blue headlights. Manufacturers are worried about creating products that could be made obsolete by BluRay. For example, V Inc. announced a Windows Media HD capable player a year ago, and it never materialized. Producers are worried that the new HD compression formats don't do justice to HD, even though the formats blow the pants off of the standard definition video they currently deliver on DVD. Consumers don't know what to think. Finally, the movie studios are worried of the potential dangers in backing compression formats that allow their films to be delivered in HD quality at such small file sizes.

If consumers, producers, and manufacturers really start to get behind these new compression formats we could see several HD-capable DVD players in six months or less. The technology already exists, and there is already one player compatible with both Windows Media HD and DivX HD available in the USA (we are reviewing it next week).

Why can't the technologies co-exist? If nothing else HD playback capability on red-laser DVDs could be a low-cost alternative to BluRay DVD players for at least another 5 years.

Look, nobody is saying BluRay won't be great. I'm just not excited about waiting ANOTHER 2 to 3 years for HD DVD's.

by Ben Buie